swan problem as “escaping the use of degenerate metaprobabilities”. The importance of the metaphor is that it constitutes an analogy showing the fragility of systems of thought. A set of conclusions is potentially refuted as soon as one of its fundamental postulates is disproven. In this case, the sighting of a single black swan could disprove the logic of a system of thought, as well as any reasoning that followed the same underlying logic. This is exactly what happened with the COVID-19 pandemic and, to another extent, with the war in Ukraine. In the first case, this was because no one had included such a scenario in their economic planning for a single moment, and therefore this unpredictability of the event – coupled with its utterly unknown duration and consequences – totally paralysed and then turned the world economy upside down. The choice of increased outsourcing decided by many business leaders, strongly developed in recent years, led to the fact that, when strict confinements became generalised and freight and logistics problems appeared, production chains complete were shut down and then, when they 15 MAY 2022 WWW.LAWYER-MONTHLY.COM Many office floors no longer find takers, and market prices have changed postpandemic. With a drop in France of 42% in investments and 45% in leases, under the shock of the global pandemic, 2020 was the worst year for the tertiary real estate sector in twenty years. If the office is not dead, the coming months will be synonymous with the rationalisation of surfaces. During each crisis, the primary reflex is to revisit the issue of the real estate footprint, the second cost item for businesses. Today, new workspaces are emerging which aim to improve the daily lives of employees required to officiate face-toface. Many real estate groups now offer annexes – satellite structures of reduced size – hosting a company in a privileged setting a short distance from the places of residence of employees, accessible 7 days a week according to needs. Flexibility seems to have become audible again for everyone. The “usual place of work” within the meaning of labour law, which was a more than essential concept, will end up becoming quite relative. The autonomy of employees is increasingly extended. More than 72% of weekly meetings are now held in dematerialised format, no longer because the pandemic risk requires it, but because, ultimately, it has become part of our habits. This has also prompted digital majors to develop new dematerialised meeting platforms with new features and numerous refinements. restarted very slowly, continued to be disrupted for many months. In the second case, it is the international response and its economic and political consequences, particularly in terms of sanctions, which had been underestimated or little considered. The conclusion is clear; risk management is the assessment of a situation or strategic planning which must be fully appreciated by broadening the spectrum of “reasonably possible”. Alternative plans – at least two – must always be associated as part of governance planning. Previously, you mentioned that the pandemic may have irreversibly altered the way we see asset security and human resources management. How far has this been borne out in your observations since then? Are there other ‘new normals’ that you have encountered? It is obvious, and it has been confirmed. Take a look today at the strongly encouraged notion of teleworking, which has even become mandatory in some cases. Such a measure before the pandemic would simply have been unthinkable. There has never been so much co-working space development. “ Risk management is the assessment of a situation or strategic planning which must be fully appreciated by broadening the spectrum of “reasonably possible”. Alternative plans – at least two – must always be associated as part of governance planning.
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